Analysis of uncontrolled space debris reentry risks in Turkish airspace using the AERO-TR model

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the potential risks posed by uncontrolled space debris reentries over Turkish national airspace within a quantitative and probabilistic framework. To this end, a numerical model named AERO-TR has been developed, integrating orbit propagation based on Two-Line Element (TLE) data, physics-based atmospheric reentry modeling, and Monte Carlo simulations. The study covers low Earth orbit (LEO) objects with reentry potential and investigates the spatial distribution of long-term exposure densities at the upper airspace scale. The analyses indicate that reentry-related risks are not homogeneously distributed across Turkish airspace; instead, higher risk densities emerge in specific latitude bands and in regions characterized by dense air traffic. However, the accuracy of TLE data, the inherent limitations of the SGP4 orbit propagation model, and the adopted uncertainty assumptions constitute the primary constraints of the study. The findings demonstrate that uncontrolled reentries should not be regarded merely as event-based and rare occurrences, but rather as persistent operational safety factors that must be considered in airspace planning. In conclusion, this study presents the first comprehensive probabilistic framework for assessing uncontrolled space debris reentry risks specific to Turkish national airspace, providing a decision-support foundation for air traffic management, NOTAM planning, and long-term aviation safety strategies.